Get Curriculum Bottleneck Probability

Calculates the probability a student masters a skill GIVEN they have perfectly acquired all its prerequisites.

Usage

calc_prob_master_given_prereqs(results, skill)

Arguments

results

The full pgdcm results list object.

skill

A string name (e.g., "partitioning_iterating") or integer index.

Value

A list containing the target name, posterior mean probability, and 95

Semantic Interpretation

* **High Value (> 0.8)**: The learning progression is working. Once students get the prerequisites, they naturally acquire this target skill. * **Low Value (< 0.5)**: A major curriculum bottleneck. Even perfectly prepared students are failing to acquire this skill. This implies the skill requires external knowledge not captured by the prerequisites, or the instructional transition is poorly scaffolded.